01 March, 2014

Indian bank's vulnerability - Rising share of non-performing loans in total advances.



Indian economy is at a dangerously critical period. This is post economic restructuring in the last decade (2000 -2010). Very clear reflection of this vulnerable situation is in the share of non-performing loans in total advances.

So… !!  What is 'Nonperforming Loan - NPL'?

A sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made his or her scheduled payments for at least 90 days. A nonperforming loan is either in default or close to being in default. Once a loan is nonperforming, the odds that it will be repaid in full are considered to be substantially lower. If the debtor starts making payments again on a nonperforming loan, it becomes a reperforming loan, even if the debtor has not caught up on all the missed payments.

It is surprising to hear this even when I am saying it is after the economic reforms. You may get more surprised if I tell you that these reforms were meant to check and correct the problems or weakness and correct remove the problems leading to more NPLs.  The Idea behind these reforms was to have freedom over financial prices and financial activity for banks and have less control from the state. Bank resources where pushed towards priority sectors of government and it was felt that this may restrict banks to chare more from their customers and restrict their growth. An obvious priority sector for the government was Agriculture. It was also considered and assumed that agriculture being “weak” sector will result into more NPAs. So the advocates of reform movements advocated against and were able to get banks greater flexibility and autonomy in deciding what they did with the resources they mobilized. However, the share of credit required to be lent to sectors categorized as priority remained at 40 per cent of total advances. This gave rise to the notion that NPAs in the banking system have been rising because of the pressure to stick with priority lending. Advocates of liberalization assume markets to be efficient and allocate resources best and that deficient or inferior economic outcomes are the result of policy measures such as subsidies to the poor and priority sector lending.

C. P. Chandrasekhar in his article in ‘The Hindu’ states this from a number of features of the vulnerability of India’s banks revealed in answers to parliamentary questions tabled in the December 2013 session of Parliament.
The first (revealed in answer to parliamentary question no. 283 tabled in the Lok Sabha on December 6, 2013) was that between the periods ending March 2011 and September 2013, the ratio of gross NPAs to gross advances in public sector, old private sector and new private sector banks put together, rose rather sharply from 2.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent (Chart 1). Further, an overwhelmingly high share of the increase in absolute NPAs was on account of NPAs in public sector banks. While the share of the public sector banks in the increase in advances between end-March 2011 and end-September 2013 was 76 per cent, their share in the increase in absolute NPAs was 96 per cent. The ratio of gross NPAs to advances even declined in the case of the new private sector banks. This seems to strengthen the view that it is the state-controlled public sector that is the problem, requiring disinvestment in addition to financial reform to correct it.
 He further argues - Is the use of the public sector banks to deliver more credit to agriculture and the medium and small scale industries or to push priority sector lending in general responsible for this tendency? The evidence says it is not. More than 80 per cent of the increase in the ratio of non-performing assets to advances is on account of NPAs located in the non-priority sector. While there has been some increase in NPAs in advances to agriculture and the MSMEs, these are small in comparison (shown in the Chart below).
Was the problem the flexibility and autonomy given to public sector banks managers under liberalisation that they were unable to handle? Here too the answer seems to be no. One of the notable features of bank lending has been the sharp increase in the share of advances directed to the infrastructural sector. In fact (according to figures from answer to question no 1584 tabled in the Lok Sabha on December 13, 2013), even in the short period between March-end 2011 and September-end 2013 the share of lending to infrastructure in the total advances of public sector, old private sector and new private sector banks put together rose from 13.2 to 15.7 per cent. Moreover, public sector banks account for as much as 86-88 per cent of the advances of the three segments of domestic banking to the infrastructural area.
But he says –

On the other hand, there is evidence that many infrastructural companies are not delivering the revenues and surpluses that they were expected to yield resulting in defaults in payments of interest and amortisation due on bank credits, leading to debt restructuring and subsequent default. As at the end of March 2013, 23 per cent of all debt restructured under the corporate debt restructuring (CDR) mechanism was to infrastructural projects.

So what is the problem here and what is the real reason and the issues for rising share of non-performing loans in total advances. It was definitively not this priority landing. The major problem was the landing to various capital intensive projects which are more risky and more illiquid government wants to promote private entry into the infrastructural area, either independently or under the PPP framework, it has been pressurising the public banking system to support that process. The result has been much higher public, when compared to private, bank exposure to infrastructure.

Gross NPAs to advances by bank groups (source:The Hindu)

Public Sector NPAs by sector (per cent of gross advances) (source:The Hindu)

TABLE B7 : BANK-WISE AND BANK GROUP-WISE GROSS NON-PERFORMING ASSETS,
GROSS ADVANCES AND GROSS NPA RATIO OF SCHEDULED COMMERCIAL BANKS - 2013
(Amount in `. Million)
Banks / Bank Groups As on March 31, 2013
Gross NPAs Gross Advances Gross NPAs to Gross
Advances Ratio (%)
(1) (2) (3)
Public Sector Banks
State Bank of India 511894 10785571 4.75
State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur 21195 584737 3.62
State Bank of Hyderabad 31860 920231 3.46
State Bank of Mysore 20806 459805 4.53
State Bank of Patiala 24530 754598 3.25
State Bank of Travancore 17499 683885 2.56
State Bank of India & its Associates 627784 14188827 4.42
Allahabad Bank 51370 1309363 3.92
Andhra Bank 37145 1001378 3.71
Bank of Baroda 79826 3328113 2.40
Bank of India 87653 2929679 2.99
Bank of Maharashtra 11376 763972 1.49
Canara Bank 62602 2439358 2.57
Central Bank of India 84562 1762337 4.80
Corporation Bank 20482 1193540 1.72
Dena Bank 14525 664569 2.19
Indian Bank 35655 1071559 3.33
Indian Overseas Bank 66080 1643665 4.02
Oriental Bank of Commerce 41840 1301862 3.21
Punjab & Sind Bank 15369 518434 2.96
Punjab National Bank 134658 3152440 4.27
Syndicate Bank 29785 1494227 1.99
UCO Bank 71301 1315691 5.42
Union Bank of India 63138 2119111 2.98
United Bank of India 29638 697081 4.25
Vijaya Bank 15329 705135 2.17
IDBI Bank Limited 64500 2001347 3.22
Nationalised Banks $ 1016834 31412861 3.24
Public Sector Banks 1644618 45601688 3.61
Notes : $ Includes IDBI Bank Ltd.
Source : Department of Banking Supervision, RBI.
TABLE B7 : BANK-WISE AND BANK GROUP-WISE GROSS NON-PERFORMING ASSETS,
GROSS ADVANCES AND GROSS NPA RATIO OF SCHEDULED COMMERCIAL BANKS - 2013 (Contd.)
(Amount in `. Million)
Banks / Bank Groups As on March 31, 2013
Gross NPAs Gross Advances Gross NPAs to Gross
Advances Ratio (%)
(1) (2) (3)
Private Sector Banks
Catholic Syrian Bank Ltd. 2109 89760 2.35
City Union Bank Ltd. 1731 153429 1.13
Dhanlaxmi Bank Ltd. 3803 78963 4.82
Federal Bank Ltd. 15540 451946 3.44
ING Vysya Bank Ltd. 1214 318916 0.38
Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. 6438 398537 1.62
Karnataka Bank Ltd. 6389 254165 2.51
Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. 2859 297059 0.96
Lakshmi Vilas Bank Ltd. 4599 118923 3.87
Nainital Bank Ltd. 673 21746 3.09
Ratnakar Bank Ltd. 259 63952 0.40
South Indian Bank Ltd. 4339 320140 1.36
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd. 2145 163661 1.31
Old Private Sector Banks 52098 2731197 1.91
Axis Bank Ltd. 23714 1989007 1.19
Development Credit Bank Ltd 2150 67530 3.18
HDFC Bank Ltd. 20481 2413061 0.85
ICICI Bank Ltd. 96078 2984164 3.22
IndusInd Bank Ltd. 4578 446416 1.03
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 7581 489186 1.55
Yes Bank Ltd 943 470869 0.20
New Private Sector Banks 155525 8860233 1.76
Private Sector Banks 207623 11591430 1.79
Source : Department of Banking Supervision, RBI.
TABLE B7 : BANK-WISE AND BANK GROUP-WISE GROSS NON-PERFORMING ASSETS,
GROSS ADVANCES AND GROSS NPA RATIO OF SCHEDULED COMMERCIAL BANKS - 2013 (Concld.)
(Amount in `. Million)
Banks / Bank Groups As on March 31, 2013
Gross NPAs Gross Advances Gross NPAs to Gross
Advances Ratio (%)
(1) (2) (3)
Foreign Banks
AB Bank Ltd 57 638 8.93
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Ltd. 0 5199 0.00
American Express Banking Corp. 446 17230 2.59
Antwerp Diamond Bank  503 8106 6.21
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. 281 24048 1.17
BNP Paribas 163 77536 0.21
Bank of America  0 76230 0.00
Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait  523 7215 7.25
Bank of Ceylon 15 1014 1.48
Bank of Nova Scotia 579 77890 0.74
Barclays Bank  5543 88793 6.24
China Trust Commercial Bank 522 3019 17.29
Citibank N.A. 13587 526288 2.58
Commonwealth Bank of Australia 0 1652 0.00
Credit Agricole Bank 6 24048 0.02
Credit Suisse  0 4550 0.00
DBS Bank Ltd. 5820 141111 4.12
Deutsche Bank  1544 224999 0.69
FirstRand Bank  237 2831 8.37
Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corporation Ltd. 6408 362305 1.77
HSBC Oman S.A.O.G  0 51 0.00
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 0 3372 0.00
JP Morgan Chase Bank 244 53689 0.45
JSC VTB Bank 0 885 0.00
Krung Thai Bank  0 160 0.00
Mashreq Bank  0 547 0.00
Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. 1253 55565 2.26
National Australia Bank 0 1636 0.00
Rabobank International 0 5899 0.00
Sberbank 0 370 0.00
Shinhan Bank 0 12062 0.00
Societe Generale 7 17576 0.04
Sonali Bank Ltd 15 199 7.54
Standard Chartered Bank 38801 648317 5.98
State Bank of Mauritius Ltd. 350 8380 4.18
The Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. 0 68395 0.00
The Royal Bank of Scotland  2796 127770 2.19
UBS AG 0 9741 0.00
United Overseas Bank Limited 0 358 0.00
Foreign Banks 79700 2689674 2.96
All Scheduled Commercial Banks 1931941 59882792 3.23
Source : Department of Banking Supervision, RBI.



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